1.5C global warming limit feasible?

Could this be good news on the feasibility of limiting the 1.5C increase in global warming envisaged by the COP 21 Paris Climate Accord? A new study reported here suggests that ‘an updated analysis using the latest data shows the global carbon emissions budget that meets the 1.5C goal is significantly bigger than thought, equivalent to 20 years of current annual emissions…. the new work revealed that for a 66% chance of meeting the 1.5C target in 2100, the budget is 240bn tonnes of carbon, assuming that other greenhouse gases such as methane are also controlled. This means the target could be met if strong action is taken. The scientists also warned that carbon cuts need to happen sooner rather than later, starting with countries strengthening their Paris pledges in 2018.’

The new study reminds us of the difficulties of making projections but does not mention the expected addition of two billion more humans to Spaceship Earth by 2050 and another 2 billion after that by the target date for limiting global warming which is 2100. So often the climate disruption debate fails to make connections to other related existential threats to so-called civilised life in the Anthropocene Epoch. Here is a reminder of some of them:



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